docs(todo): record the speedrun's stow-hardening ship on the conflicts task

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diff --git a/todo.org b/todo.org
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@@ -186,6 +186,8 @@ Disabled 2026-06-12 (bind and cycle entry points removed; Super+Shift+S reassign
 The support machinery was deliberately kept for this task: =layout-navigate= and =layout-resize= retain their scrolling branches, =waybar-layout= still renders the scrolling state, and the unbound legacy =cycle-layout= script still lists it. Re-enabling is two lines: add =scrolling= back to =LAYOUTS= in =layout-cycle= and restore a direct-jump bind (the old chord is taken now — pick a new one). The =tests/layout-cycle= suite pins the disabled state and will go red on re-enable, which is the reminder to update it.
 
 ** TODO [#B] Dotfiles stow conflicts: first-launch risk + restow directory handling :bug:dotfiles:
+*** 2026-07-02 Thu @ 17:30:00 -0400 Shipped the Makefile hardening + first-launch guard (dotfiles 42a82d2)
+The solo-able subset landed in the speedrun. =make conflicts <de>= is the loud first-launch guard: dry-runs all tiers, parses all four stow error shapes (plain file conflict, foreign symlink, dir-over-file, and restow's unstow_contents non-directory ERROR), lists each blocker with a directory/foreign-symlink marker, exits 1 when any exist. =make reset= now pre-clears the directory and foreign-symlink blockers =--adopt= aborts atomically on (removals printed; repo version wins per the target's contract), then adopts + git-checkouts as before. =make restow='s overwrite path switched rm -f → rm -rf so directory conflicts clear. 8 sandbox tests drive the real Makefile against a throwaway HOME (44 suites green). Also verified on velox: the whereami and mpd-playlists conflicts noted in this task were already hand-converted 2026-06-29 — =make conflicts hyprland= reports clean live. REMAINING (deferred per Craig's speedrun pre-flight): the waypaper canonical decision (live velox dark-lion.jpg vs repo that-one-up-there.jpg) and the ratio calibre-symlink check (ratio paused).
 From the velox calibre incident (2026-06-27, note in ~/.dotfiles/inbox/processed/): calibre was launched before =make stow= ran, wrote its own default config into =~/.config/calibre/=, and silently blocked its own stow — it ran on factory defaults while the rest of common/ stowed fine. General pattern: any GUI app that auto-creates config on first run, launched before stow, blocks its own stow the same way. Velox was repaired by hand (=ln -srf= symlinks byte-identical to =stow --no-folding= output).
 
 Remaining work, all in ~/.dotfiles: