docs: draft the guarded-upgrade spec and file the open velox itemsHEADmain

The topgrade freshness warning never clears because the stamp is written only when topgrade exits 0, and the live-update guard plus any failing ecosystem step makes that exit almost unreachable. The spec (DRAFT) weighs four ways to close that. Its open decisions are state versus recency, an armed boot-time oneshot, an arch-only boot run and a persistent one-shot arm flag.

Four tasks filed:
- the spec's decisions, review and decomposition
- ratio pulling .emacs.d before its Emacs 31.1 upgrade
- the stale lock-screen clock after a real sleep
- the Signal tray icon waybar can't read. Electron 43 registers it under a well-known bus name and answers property reads only there. Downgrading is closed off by the database schema.

The Lua-port task got its date and the sleep task carries the two Aug 23 hibernate failures. Wrap hygiene moved 42 aged resolved subtrees into the task archive.

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