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-rw-r--r--five-whys/SKILL.md9
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diff --git a/five-whys/SKILL.md b/five-whys/SKILL.md
index 7d7080d..e645f82 100644
--- a/five-whys/SKILL.md
+++ b/five-whys/SKILL.md
@@ -37,13 +37,20 @@ Good: "The 2026-04-17 release was rolled back at 14:02 after the cart-checkout e
Bad: "Our releases are flaky."
-### 2. Ask Why — One Answer
+### 2. Ask Why — One Answer, With Evidence and a Counterfactual
Not three possible answers. One best-supported answer, based on evidence you can point to. If the question genuinely has multiple independent causes, you'll branch in step 4.
+Each link in the chain owes two things, not just an answer:
+
+- **Evidence** — what you can point to that supports this cause (a log line, a commit, a metric, a config value). "It seems like" without evidence is a guess, and a guessed link derails every why below it.
+- **Counterfactual check** — if this cause were removed, would the symptom above it plausibly not have happened? If removing the cause leaves the symptom standing, you've named a coincidence, not a cause. This is the main guard against monocausal storytelling — a tidy chain that reads well but wouldn't actually have prevented the failure.
+
```
Why did the release roll back?
→ The cart-checkout endpoint returned 500 on ~8% of traffic.
+ evidence: rollback log 14:02; APM 500-rate panel; error tracker grouped on CartController#checkout
+ counterfactual: no 500 spike → no rollback trigger fires → release stays up. Holds.
```
### 3. Take the Answer as the New Question